Box Office Predictions - 'Godzilla: King of the Monsters', 'Rocketman' and 'Ma'
This summer has been jam-packed so far and it’s only been one month. First we got Avengers: Endgame (Okay, not technically summer, but go with it), then Pokemon: Detective Pikachu managed to mint a decent chunk of change in the wake of Marvel’s juggernaut, John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum followed suit with a franchise best and finally Aladdin just recently upended expectations grossing over 100 million over the long Memorial day weekend. Well, it’s another big weekend at the box office with Godzilla stomping in and while it should take number 1, it may be one of the summer’s first minor box office disappointments. Let’s take a look.
Godzilla: King of the Monsters (WB)
Opening: $65 million
I think this will fall somewhere between Kong: Skull Island’s $61 million and Godzilla (2014)’s $93 million, but much closer to Kong. The reviews are coming in much more mixed than I was expecting, but I feel like audiences will likely be more pleased with this film than the previous one as it features more fan-servicey fist-pumping moments and much more action than its predecessor. It’s not a better movie, in fact it’s worse, but it is more immediately engaging from an action movie standpoint and thus may receive better word of mouth. We’ll see. This all levels out to about a $65 million opening weekend from me, and around a $145 million domestic total by the time it finishes up its run. That’s not particularly awesome considering budget estimates for this movie are hovering around $170 to $200 million. It’ll be up to foreign markets, particularly China to carry this one in to the black, which is a definite possibility.
Opening: $27 million
Musical biopics just received a shot in the arm with last year’s mega success, Bohemian Rhapsody, so it’s good timing for Rocketman, a film about Elton John’s rise to fame. There are a few things that might mar this one’s performance, for one, it’s a crowded market out there right now with massive blockbusters releasing every week, and surprisingly none of them have bombed! Also, Rocketman is rated R, which makes it a tougher sell for families and younger teens. That said, this is the definition of effective counter-programming; there is nothing else in the market like Rocketman, and that could appeal to all of the moviegoers out there who are tired of Disney princes/princesses, superheroes and monsters. The film is also getting glowing reviews, something that Bohemian Rhapsody didn’t have. Overall, I expect Rocketman to hit in the mid-20 million range, but leg it out to around 90 million.
Opening; $20 million
In another case of smart programming we have the Blumhouse production Ma starring Octavia Spencer whose gleefully evil performance looks like it will carry the movie. The film’s not going to be huge, but with a reported budget of only $5 million, it’s going to be a slam-dunk no matter what. My prediction for Ma is around $20 million and it should finish its run in the $55 million range.