Box Office Results - 'Logan', 'The Shack' and 'Before I Fall'
Wow, this is the second weekend in a row where I went above what everyone was predicting and ended up right on the money. That's a satisfying feeling that likely won't last much longer so I'm going to relish it. Logan, as I suspected, over-performed this weekend and was my only correct prediction. The Shack managed to bring in a bit more than I was suspecting, as did Before I Fall, though it still wasn't enough to make the latter in any way a success.
Prediction: $90 million
Actual: $88.4 million
There were many aspects that were working in Logan's favor this weekend. For one, it features the final performances from Hugh Jackman as the Wolvernine and Patrick Stewart as Professor Xavier. Secondly, this is the first time we've ever seen a Wolverine film in an R-rated environment, save for maybe a morsel of it in the unrated cut of The Wolverine, but I don't think that really counts. Finally, the film is getting almost unanimously positive reviews, which always works in a films favor when it comes to achieving a good weekend multiplier.
Off of this massive wave of anticipation, Logan slashed its way to $88 million this weekend, which is a phenomenal start considering the film didn't even cost $100 million to make. I predicted the film would rake in $90 million so I'm pretty proud that I stuck my neck out a little more than everybody else. That said, this film has a lot of competition in the coming weeks with Kong: Skull Island next weekend, Beauty and the Beast after that and finally Ghost in the Shell to cap off the month. Still, with rave reviews and a higher-than-expected Sunday take, I think this film will have better legs than the usual superhero fare. Logan should make it to at least $220 million by the time it rolls out of theaters.
The Shack (Lionsgate/Summit)
Prediction: $11 million
Actual: $16.2 million
This was my big miss for the weekend, in fact, I was going to go even lower than $11 million before I decided to course-correct at the last minute. The rule here is never to under-estimate a well-marketed faith-based film based off of a popular book. The crowds showed up in full force for The Shack this weekend and pushed it to a healthy total of $16 million for the FSS frame. Not bad. If this film holds up, and it likely will, expect it to reach around $45 million by the time it's out of theaters.
Before I Fall (Open Road Films)
Prediction: $2.5 million
Actual: $4.7 million
This total would seem like I came pretty close, but really, guessing only about half of what the film actual ended up making isn't very close at all. I thought there was virtually no interest in this film, and there still wasn't much, but there was enough to make me completely wrong with my prediction. Before I Fall grossed $4.7 million for the weekend, which still isn't good at all, but it's a lot better than the measly $2.5 million I thought it would make. I see the film getting to maybe around $13 million before it exits theaters.
The Top Ten:
1. Logan - $88.4 million (NEW) $88.4 million
2. Get Out - $28.2 million (-15.4%) $78.1 million
3. The Shack - $16.2 million (NEW) $16.2 million
4. The LEGO Batman Movie - $11.7 million (-39.1%) $148.7 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 2 - $4.8 million (-48.7%) $82.9 million
6. Before I Fall - $4.7 million (NEW) $4.7 million
7. Hidden Figures - $3.8 million (-34.1%) $158.8 million
8. The Great Wall - $3.6 million (-60.3%) $41.4 million
9. Fifty Shades Darker - $3.6 million (-54.3%) $110 million
10. La La Land - $3 million (-36.3%) $145.7 million
That's it for this weekend's results! Come back on Wednesday when I predict the opening for Kong: Skull Island!
Source: Box Office Mojo