Box Office Results - 'The Bye Bye Man', 'Patriot's Day', 'Monster Trucks', 'Sleepless' and 'Live by Night'
It's just so nice to be wrong on nearly every one of the predictions I made for the films that released this weekend. Sure, I was a close on a few of them, but misses are misses no matter how close. Anyway, a handful of films bombed and a handful of films did alright. Let's break it down:
The Bye Bye Man (STX)
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: 13.5 million ($15.3 million 4-Day)
I did not anticipate this poorly-reviewed horror film to notch so much as a ripple, yet audiences seemed to be in the mood for a horror film this weekend, making The Bye Bye Man the highest opening new release of the weekend. The film was made on a mini-budget of $7.5 million so it will easily make its money back by the end of its run no matter how steeply it falls off in the coming weeks. My guess is that The Bye Bye Man ends its run with around $33 million.
Patriot's Day (Lionsgate)
Prediction: $15 million
Actual: $12 million ($14 million 4-day)
This is one of the few films that I was pretty close on, but I still didn't get close enough. Patriot's Day had a decent opening, but it was a bit disappointing considering the considerable buzz and good reviews the films had going for it. I still think it'll have a pretty great multiplier, but the opening leaves a little to be desired. Patriot's Day should at least make it to $50 million, maybe $60 million.
Monster Trucks (Paramount)
Prediction: $10 million
Actual: $10.9 million ($14.2 million 4-Day)
My one correct prediction went to the ill-advised Monster Trucks. I honestly thought I was going a bit high on this one, I mean, have you seen the trailers for this thing? Still, the film cost $125 million to produce and movies that big don't generally have openings under $10 million, no matter how terrible they are. I see Monster Trucks sputtering out around the $25 million mark once all is said and done.
Predicted: $5 million
Actual: $8.3 million ($9.8 million 4-day)
I was also somewhat close on my prediction for Sleepless, but I should have banked on the star-power of Jamie Foxx a little bit harder. The film brought in 8.3 million and should also be able to make around $25 million domestically by the end of its run.
Live by Night (WB)
Predicted: $14 million
Actual: $5.1 million ($6 million 4-Day)
Live by Night was a huge swing-and-a-miss for me. I thought due to Ben Affleck's pedigree that despite the poor reviews, fans of his work would still show up. I was wrong. Live by Night flopped hard with only $5.1 million. I plan on seeing this film in the coming work so we'll see if it's really as disappointing as they say, so keep an eye out for my review. Live by Night should still hold up a bit throughout the weeks and could have a shot at $20 million if it's lucky, but I'm a little more confident in pegging it at a $15 million total for its entire run.
The Top Ten
1. Hidden Figures - $20.8 million (-8.5%) $61.9 million
2. La La Land - $14.5 million (+43.4%) $77.3 million
3. Sing - $14.2 million (-31.2%) $233.5 million
4. The Bye Bye Man - $13.5 million (NEW) $15.2 million
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $13.5 million (-39%) $501.9 million
6. Patriot's Day - $11.6 million (NEW) $14.7 million
7. Monster Trucks - $11 million (NEW) $14.2 million
8. Sleepless - $8.3 million (NEW) $9.8 million
9. Underworld: Blood Wars - $6.2 million (-54.7%) $25.4 million
10. Passengers - $5.4 million (-39.4%) $90.9 million
Check back in on Wednesday when I predict another large slew of new releases, hopefully it won't be quite the blood bath as it was this weekend (but it probably will). Next week we have xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, The Founder, Split, 20th Century Woman and The Resurrection of Gavin Stone.