Box Office Predictions: 'Monster Trucks', 'The Bye Bye Man', 'Live By Night', 'Patriot's Day' and 'Sleepless'
We have five, FIVE new releases this weekend! A couple of them are expansions from limited runs, but still, that's a lot of new blood on the market and with this much competition, some of them are going to have to step aside and bite the bullet. This weekend sees the release of Monster Trucks, The Bye Bye Man, Live By Night, Patriot's Day and Sleepless.
Live By Night (Warner Bros.)
Prediction: $14 million
This was one of my most anticipated films when the trailer first dropped, then the reviews started flowing in. I haven't seen the flick yet and I'm going to go in with an open mind. I'm generally a bit more forgiving than the typical critic so who knows, I might still love it. That said, I don't think this bodes will for its box office prospects. I really want this to be good and I really want it to perform, but I feel like it's going to have a middling opening and drop quickly after that. My prediction for Ben Affleck's Live by Night is $14 million.
If audiences like this film enough I could potentially see this one crawling to around the $50 million mark, but that won't be enough to be a success unless it really cleans house overseas.
Monster Trucks (Paramount)
Prediction: $10 million
Who is going to see this? I'm honestly curious. I have only seen one preview for this and it just looks like such a misfire, and it cost $125 million to produce! This looks like this year's Max Steel, and while I don't think it will perform quite as badly as that flick, I still don't think this is going to do well at all. My guess for Monster Trucks is $10 million in its opening weekend and maybe it triples that by the end of its run. Who knows.
The Bye Bye Man (STX)
Prediction: $5 million
I honestly have no idea how this film will perform this weekend. I haven't even seen a trailer for this but I know they're running out of good titles. The Bye Bye Man? Seriously? Just judging by the theater count and the fact that there might be a few people out there in the mood for an original horror flick, I think $5 million is a pretty safe bet. If this films makes it to $5 million this weekend, it'll probably fade quickly and gross over/under $12 million domestically.
Sleepless (Open Road Films)
Prediction: $5 million
Sleepless is a crime drama starring Jamie Foxx and Michelle Monaghan, that's all I know. Jamie Foxx is known for getting at least a few butts in the seats but I haven't seen much publicity on this film, which leads me to believe that it might just be another January dumper. This is a shot in the dark, but like The Bye Bye Man, I'm also predicting that Sleepless pulls in around $5 million. If Sleepless makes it to $5 million, it might have a shot at making it to $15 million by the end of its run, provided it's reviews aren't atrocious.
Patriot's Day (Lionsgate)
Prediction: $15 million
I think this might actually be our winner for the weekend. There's a fair amount of buzz surrounding the drama that chronicles the events of the Boston marathon bombings and it's being led by the reliable Mark Wahlberg. The movie is also getting pretty good reviews and is opening in the highest amount of theaters. So yeah, my money is on Patriots Day pulling in a win this weekend and bringing in around $15 million.
If audiences like what they see with Patriot's Day, and they likely will as these types of films are generally well-received by audiences, I could see this film making its way to around $60 million, which would be an acceptable total seeing as how the film cost $45 million to produce.
Well that wraps up this week's predictions. Check back in on Monday for the results!