Box Office Predictions: 'Blair Witch', 'Bridget Jones's Baby' and 'Snowden'
This week we have three new wide releases; Lionsgate's Blair Witch, Universal's Bridget Jones's Baby and Open Road Films's Snowden. Judging by Sully's surprisingly great performance and barring a breakout opening from Blair Witch, I think the captain might repeat on the top of the charts this week. That means that this weekend our new-comers may have to battle for second.
Blair Witch (Lionsgate)
Prediction: $18 million
In my mind this is the only film this weekend that has a shot at number one. Its been quite the year for horror releases, and all of the good ones have had some pretty great openings and surprisingly leggy runs. Blair Witch is the third film in the Blair Witch series that kicked off the popular "found footage" style of film-making. The first film was a massive success, grossing $240 million worldwide off of a very small budget of $60,000. Then came Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2 which completely nose-dived and more-or-less killed the franchise up until now.
If Blair Witch were pulling in great reviews like the buzzy Don't Breathe did a couple of weeks ago, I might be willing to give the edge to Witch this weekend, however, it's not exactly being praised. Blair Witch is currently sitting at an okay 56% percent on Rotten Tomatoes.
The film does have a lot of hype behind it though, which should result in the pretty great opening day, but I predict that it will fizzle out by the end of the weekend, unless audiences find it to be more compelling than the critics did. I'm also a bit concerned about Don't Breathe not even being close to finishing up its run in theaters and it will undoubtedly take a bite out of Blair Witch. My prediction for Blair Witch is $18 million.
Bridget Jones's Baby (Universal)
Prediction: $11 million
Bridget Jones Diary is still one of the biggest romantic comedies, grossing a total of $281 million worldwide, $71 million of that total was state-side. The sequel, Edge of Reason pulled a similar $263 million, though only $40 million of that was domestic and the film received pretty critical marks. Now we have Bridget Jones's Baby, which is pulling in surprisingly good reviews, it's currently at a lofty 82% on Rotten Tomatoes.
This is one of those instances where I may have been grossly wrong in my assumptions of a film. I thought the trailers looked absolutely awful, like, unforgivably bad. I know I shouldn't judge by a trailer, but if I had that alone to go off of, I would never go see this film. I get a slight feeling that the bad reception of the last film and the poor trailers for Baby will result in this film not performing very well, at least not on opening weekend. If people realize it's something good that they want to see, I believe word-of-mouth will do its job and it will get to a pretty nice multiplier. For now though, I see this film pushing slightly above $10 million.
Snowden (Open Road Films)
Prediction: $5 million
I really don't think there's much interest in a Snowden film. I mean, Steve Jobs, one of the biggest names in the world got a film starring Michael Fassbender and directed by Academy Award-winning director, Danny Boyle and only was able to crawl its way to a measly $34 million worldwide, with only $17 million here in the states. So, yeah, If that can't do great business, I don't see this one going anywhere either. In addition to this, it's getting pretty middling reviews, with a mediocre 45% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The film does have a few things going for it, though. I think there's still a mystery to who Snowden really is and that curiosity will get a few audiences in seats. I also hear that Joseph Gordon-Levitt does a good job, though I haven't read too much into that so don't quote me. Finally, there's Oliver Stone, who has had a checkered career but has had his share of successes. For Snowden I'm predicting $5 million.
Well that wraps up my predictions for this coming weekend, be sure to check back in on Monday when the final numbers are released!