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The Winners and Losers of Summer 2016 (Part 2: June)

The Winners and Losers of Summer 2016 (Part 2: June)

This article is a box office analysis on most of the films that were released this summer. The quality of said films will not be a factor. A movie might have been critically lauded yet still receive a failing score here because nobody showed up in the theaters to see it. There are many factors that come into play that determine whether a film is successful or not. There's the budget, marketing costs,  differences in distributions of money in all of the various countries, product placement and all sorts of other expenses that I don't have the time to get into. For the sake of this article I'm going to simplify the system and say that if a film earns around three times its budget; it's successful. I know this isn't an exact science, but if you do the math, you'd find yourself in the same ball-park, barring a few rare exceptions. 

I will also be tallying up a score for how many wins and losses each studio has had each month, so look for that along with an overall score for the month at the bottom.


Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (Paramount)
Box Office: $245 million
Budget: $135 million

I feel sorry for this fillm. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows was a better film than its predecessor (though I didn't hate that one quite as much as everyone else did. Unfortunately for the sequel, it was sandwiched between too many other blockbusters that people cared more about, plus there was a sour still lingering on the tongues of moviegoers who were burned by the previous outing. TMNT: OOTS didn't even double its budget, and though it wasn't the biggest flop of the year, it was one of the more surprising ones. 

Result: Fail


Me Before You (WB)
Box Office: $200 million
Budget: $20 million

Me Before You ended up surprising a bit with an $18 million opening, then legged its way to a $56 million finish and a stellar $200 million worldwide gross, all on a $20 million budget. So, yes, this was a good investment and a perfectly timed dose of counter-programming. 

Result: Pass


Pop Star: Never Stop Never Stopping (Universal)
Box Office: $9 million
Budget: $20 million

This supposedly hilarious comedy spoofing popstars barely made it out of the gate before it crashed and burned. The movie cost a reasonable $20 million to make, but still couldn't even muster enough juice to clear the production budget. I feel a little guilty for not supporting it during it's theatrical run, but I'll definitely be catching it when it hits physical release where it may have a bit more luck, just look at This Is Spinal Tap!

Result: Fail


The Conjuring 2 (WB)
Box Office: $320 million
Budget: $40 million

Aaaand the gravy train keeps chugging along for James Wan and Co., so much so that we're literally living in a world where there's a Conjuring cinematic universe. The Conjuring 2 was no slouch at the box office, and marked the first time since its predecessor that a horror flick crossed $100 million domestically. The film managed a stunning $320 million worldwide, which is insanely good with the budget ($40 million) in mind. 

Result: Pass


Warcraft (Universal)
Box Office: $433 million
Budget: $160

Here's a bit of a tricky one. Warcraft pulled in a pathetic $47 million here in the states, yet levied the loss with a pretty great $386 million internationally, mostly due to China where it cleaned house with $220 million. That being said, it still wasn't enough to make this film financially successful. While Warcraft was definitely not a dud, this was no stunner, either. Though Universal will end up seeing a profit when it's released on physical and VOD, as of now I'm betting they took a slight loss. 

Result: Fail


Now You See Me 2 (Lionsgate)
Box Office: $328 million
Budget: $90 million

Now You See Me 2 did modest business domestically, grabbing $65 million versus its predecessor which surprised with $117 million. This would be cause for worry, but the foreign grosses came to the rescue as they seem to be doing more and more frequently. Overseas, Now You See Me 2 grossed an impressive $263 million for a total of $329 million. With the reasonable budget of $90 million in consideration, this was a pretty decent-sized hit, even if it failed to impress from a domestic standpoint. Expect Now You See Me 3 to be announced pretty soon because it's pretty much all Lionsgate has that's profitable right now.

Result: Pass


Finding Dory (Disney)
Box Office: $945 million
Budget: $200 million

I think everyone already knew Finding Dory would be a monster, but not many expected it to be the highest domestic grosser of the summer...and maybe the year. Finding Dory has amassed $483 million domestically and $462 million elsewhere for a grand total of $945 million (and it's still going!). There's still a a slight chance this crosses the famed billion mark and joins Zootopia on it's golden billion-dollar throne.

Result: Pass


Central Intelligence (WB)
Box Office: $214 million
Budget: $50 million

Central Intelligence was bound to do well with its two very popular leads; Kevin Hart and Dwayne Johnson, and it didn't disappoint. Since Pop Star didn't catch on, the market was wide open for a comedy, and Central Intelligence did the trick with $127 million domestically, and a decent $87 million internationally. The film brought in four times its budget and should be safely in the black. 

Result: Pass


The Shallows (Sony)
Box Office: $99 million
Budget: $17 million

The Shallows was a bit of a surprise hit with audiences this summer. While it didn't set the world alight, it restored interest in the shark horror sub-genre and was an effective survival thriller. The Shallows grossed $55 million here in the states and $44 million elsewhere for a total of $99 million. Obviously Sony's going to push it past the $100 million mark.

Result: Pass


Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox)
Box Office: $383 million
Budget: $165 million

This film has not quite wrapped up its run, but I still don't think it will make it to a total where it could be considered a success, especially considering its predecessor completely smoked it, and that was 20 years ago. Independence Day: Resurgence grossed a disappointing $103 million domestically and was slightly redeemed by an overseas take of $280 million for a total of $383 million (so far). The budget was thankfully not quite as high as the typical $200 million blockbuster, so that helps a bit, still, its only made a little over two times its budget. Maybe VOD and the physical release will push it up into profitability, but for now, it's still slightly in the red. 

Result: Fail


Free State of Jones (STX)
Box Office: $21 million
Budget: $50 million

Yeah, not many showed up for this one. The Matthew McConaughey-starring period piece Free State of Jones grossed a sad $21 million against a budget of $50 million, and hasn't played on any international screens. This film wasn't highly publicized so they likely didn't spend too much on marketing. Still, it's a pretty heavy loss and didn't even come close to recouping the budget. 

Result: Fail


June:

Disney - Wins: 1, Losses: 0
Universal - Wins: 0, Losses: 2
WB - Wins: 3, Losses: 0
Sony - Wins: 1, Losses: 0
Fox - Wins: 0, Losses: 1
Paramount - Wins: 0, Losses: 1
Lionsgate - Wins: 1, Losses: 0
STX - Wins: 0, Losses: 1

June's Total:
Wins: 6
Losses: 5

Overall:
Disney - Wins: 2, Losses: 1
WB - Wins: 3, Losses: 1
Sony - Wins: 3, Losses: 0
Universal - Wins: 1, Losses: 2
Fox - Wins: 1, Losses: 1
Lionsgate - Wins: 1, Losses: 0
Paramount - Wins: 0, Losses: 1
STX - Wins: 0, Losses: 1
HTR - WIns: 0, Losses: 1

Overall Total:
Wins: 11
Losses: 8

Well that wraps up June. We saw few more high-profile releases explode on impact and a few lower-budgeted films surprise with healthy totals. June also saw the colossal release of Finding Dory, which basically carried the month on its shoulders. Check in soon for my "winners and losers" of July, it's gonna be a bloodbath!

For anyone who missed my May article, here's a link: The Winners and Losers of Summer 2016 (Part 1: May)

Source: Boxofficemojo.com

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