Box Office Predictions - 'Jason Bourne', 'Bad Moms' and 'Nerve'
My predictions are completely random and mostly based off of my gut-feeling. I try to avoid other box office sites before I make my predictions as it takes away from the fun. That being said, my predictions may be very off-base when all the numbers are tabulated (just covering my ass here). Basically this only exists for my own guessing pleasure. The only tools I use to assist my predictions are theater counts and audience reception to trailers and other promotional material.
Another weekend, another highly anticipated sequel. This week sees the release of the fifth film in the Bourne franchise and fourth starring Matt Damon. The film has a lot of hype behind it based solely on the fact that we have Matt Damon and Paul Greengrass back. Next we have 'Bad Moms' starring Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, Kathryn Hahn, Christina Applegate and Jada Pinkett-Smith. The film centers around three moms who take a break from their routine and go wild, which causes problems with a group of "perfect" moms in the neighborhood. There's also a little social-media app-based thriller coming out titled 'Nerve', starring Emma Roberts and Dave Franco.
Jason Bourne (Universal)
Prediction: $52 million
Jason Bourne is obviously going to be number one this weekend, the question is though; how much will it make? The previous films in the franchise all did pretty well, even 'Bourne Legacy' managed to make over $100 million when it came out. I don't see Jason Bourne being the highest grossing title in the franchise, but I do think it will have a larger opening that both 'Bourne Identity' and 'Bourne Supremacy'. I don't see it reaching the high water mark of 'Bourne Ultimatum' as that film had the momentum of two great films preceding it. My gut tells me that 'Jason Bourne' will take number one this weekend netting around $53 million.
Bad Moms (STX Entertainment)
Prediction: $25 million
I think there's a big market for this kind of film right now. Mothers have kind of been left out in the cold this summer and though 'Ghostbusters' played well for women, it's not exactly a ladies-night-out type of film. That said, I have NO idea how this film is tracking and totally forgot about it's existence until today. I'm sticking to my word and not looking up box office tracking on it and will peg it at, say, $25 million for the weekend.
Prediction: $11 million
I have no clue how this film will do. 'Nerve' seems like it has slight buzz surrounding it and the concept is a good one, even if it doesn't look like it's used to the fullest. Maybe I'm wrong. The two actors are known but not well-known, so I don't think they will have any effect on how many people show up for this. This movie is strictly driven by its interesting premise, so for that I'm going to play it safe and guess around $11 million for the weekend.
Thanks for sticking with me! Hopefully I can start racking up some wins here, last week was a mild success and I feel like I'm close here on 'Jason Bourne'. 'Bad Moms' and 'Nerve', well, I'm just going to assume I missed those two for now but who knows. Come back around Monday for the results!
Written by Rhys Paine on 7/27/16