Box Office Predictions - Star Trek Beyond, Lights Out, Ice Age: Collision Course
my predictions are completely random and mostly based off of my gut-feeling. I try to avoid other predictions before I make mine because it takes away from the fun. That being said, my predictions may be very off-base when all the numbers are tabulated (just covering my ass here). Basically this only exists for my own guessing pleasure. The only things I use to assist my predictions are theater counts and audience reception to trailers and other promotional material.
It's a big weekend at the boxoffice as three hopefuls step into the ring. First off is the trilogy-capper in the rebooted Star Trek franchise; Star Trek Beyond. Then we have the full-length version of the 'Lights Out' short, directed by the same guy and produced by none other than James Wan. Finally we have another kids offering with the fifth film in the too-long 'Ice Age' series: Ice Age: Collision Course.
Star Trek Beyond
Prediction: $68 million
I expect 'Star Trek Beyond' to handily take the box office cake this weekend. It had a slow start with some underwhelming trailers that looked kind of like extreme sports commercials, but then they brought out the big guns the closer the film got to it's release date. Now that reviews are pouring in it seems like it's going to be a hit. Most people are predicting $55-$60 million. I'm going to go positive and peg this at $68 million, just 'cause I think word-of-mouth will carry it further.
Prediction: $18 million
I think there's a serious market for this type of film, especially with James Wan's name attached to it. The original short was very popular for how scary and unique it was. Playing off people's fear of the dark is smart. Reviews are also solid, which is pretty rare for this type of film. I'm predicting $18 million in the first weekend for 'Lights Out'.
Ice Age: Collision Course
Prediction: $28 million
Does anyone even care about these movies anymore, and if so, why? The first one was good, and the second and third had some funny moments but were NOT good films. The fourth I stopped watching about half-way through because it was relentlessly un-funny and un-inspired. I'm betting that even kids are catching on to how lame this series of films has become. Plus they've got better things to watch that are still in theaters. Still, it's a massive franchise, so some will still show up for this. I think it'll pull in at least $28 million here in the states and gross an obscene amount of money overseas.
So there you have it, i'm sticking my neck out again and hoping at least one of these shot-in-the-dark predictions is on the money. Come back for the results on monday to see if I dropped the ball yet again.
Written by Rhys Paine on 7/22/16