Box Office Predictions: 'Birth of a Nation', 'The Girl on the Train' and 'Middle School'
Another week, another three releases hitting the market and hoping for box office glory. First up is Nate Parker-directed Birth of a Nation, the we have the Emily Blunt-starring mystery thriller, The Girl on the Train and to round out the three is Middle School: The Worst Years of my Life, a comedic family film. I've been on a huge losing streak, so I'm really hoping one of my predictions will stick this week.
Birth of a Nation (Fox)
Prediction: $11 million
Birth of a Nation tackles some of the worst aspects of our nation's history. With the racial divide still being a huge and highly publicized issue today, I feel like this film will be something that some people will want go out to see while at the same time being a film that other people might actively shun. The film has also had some not-so-behind-the-scenes controversy, but I don't think that that's going to hinder it all that much. Birth of a Nation is only releasing in 2,100 theaters, so I'm going to keep my prediction on the modest side, but I wouldn't be surprised if this film went either way. In the end I think this film has an honest shot at mustering a total above $10 million this weekend, but don't be surprised if this prediction is wildly inaccurate.
The Girl on the Train (Universal)
Prediction: $14 million
I've only seen a couple of trailer for this film and it kind of reminds me of a Gone Girl rip-off. I'm not saying it's actually anything like Gone Girl, but the way it's shot and the mystery it sets up seem very similar. I could be wildly wrong, but I feel like audiences might look upon this film in a similar light. The film is based upon a popular book by the same name, so it's got that crowd going for it and sometimes "based-off-of" movies do surprisingly well. I don't think this will be the break-out hit that Gone Girl was, but I do think it will find a decent-sized audience. I'm going to predict that The Girl on the Train lands around the middle of the mid-teen millions.
Middle School: The Worst Years of my Life (Lionsgate)
Prediction: $6 million
This film is a total stab in the dark for me from a predictions stand-point. I haven't seen a single trailer or heard anyone talk about this film, so off of that alone, I don't think it's going to perform very well at the box office. I might give this film a bit of a higher prediction if it weren't for the more-appealing Storks which is currently enjoying a leggy run despite having a disappointing opening weekend. Still, I think some families might wander into the theater and check this film out and maybe get it over $5 million for the weekend.
Well, I'm certainly not completely confident in my predictions, though I have a feeling I might be closer this weekend...maybe. Make sure to check in on Monday when the final totals for the weekend are revealed.